Επισκόπηση προγράμματος σταθεροποίησης

[ortho]

Το παρακάτω είναι τρία σενάρια σε σχέση με το έλλειμμα

Βρίσκεται στη σελίδα 31, εδώ http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/...f/ocp77_en.pdf



High primary surpluses and privatisation ensure sustainability. The chart below shows three pairs of long-term debt scenarios, until 2025. For each pair there are two assumptions on nominal interest rates 4.5 percent and 5.5 percent. Both assumptions are much below market yields, but not unrealistic if financial markets stabilise and the determination of Greece to keep fiscal accounts in order beyond the programme horizon is credible. • In scenario 1, growth remains anaemic not exceeding 2 percent, and the primary surplus does not exceed 3¼ percent of GDP (level projected for 2013): it is a scenario of insufficient and unfinished fiscal consolidation and structural reforms. In this case, debt developments are not sustainable. This scenario suggests that, to ensure sustainability
p
otential growth. • In scenario 2, nominal growth beyond 2014 is 3½ percent, practically the same as the prudent one currently projected for 2014, while the primary surplus from 2014 onwards is 5.5 percent: a high value, but not higher than some other high-debt EU countries managed to keep for relatively long periods. The primary surplus is the one that is currently projected for 2014. In scenario 2, government debt is sustainable and declines, though it will remain above 100 percent o GDP by 2025.
•
Scenario 3 is the most favourable scenario: it is a derivation of scenario 2, talking into account the government plans of privatising EUR 50 billion of assets in 2011-15. In order to reach the same debt ratio by 2025 without privatisation, the primary surpluses would have to be above 7.5 percent of GDP, from 2014 on, a level that does not seem realistic.

Βασικά εδώ γελάει και το παρδαλό κατσίκι! Από 13% έλλειμμα θα φτάσουμε σε πρωτογενές πλεόνασμα 5,5% μετά το 2014 σύμφωνα με το σενάριο 2. Για το 3 δεν το συζητάμε, το λέει και το κείμενο.

Εγώ πιστεύω ότι παίζονται ήδη στοιχήματα για το πότε θα κάνουμε αναδιάρθρωση.